Media Center
Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka (Week of 18 – 25 October 2024)
Highlights
Rainfall Prediction: During 9 – 15 Oct, high likelihood of Moderate rainfall (25-50 mm) is predicted for the Northern province and Light showers (12.5 mm≥) is predicted for the North Western, Western, Southern, Sabaragamuwa, Central, Uva, Eastern and North Central provinces
Monitored Rainfall: On average, 15.9 mm/day was received in SL and rainfall was concentrated in the Western plains (31mm/day)) for last 8 days. On average, 14.5 mm/day was received in the hydro catchments in SL; Kukule Ganga received the highest daily rainfall (130 mm/day) for last 8 days. Highest daily rainfall was in Ratnapura on 11 Oct(90 mm/day)
Monitored and Predicted Wind: From 8 Sep – 14 Oct, winds at 850mb (1.5km) were westerly, reaching up to 10 m/s. From 17 – 23 Oct, winds are predicted to be westerly, reaching up to 8 m/s.
Monitored Sea and Land Temperature: Average land surface temperature was 31.0ºC in the last week with warmer anomalies from seasonal average of -1 +1 ºC. Southern plains was warmest followed by Eastern and Northern plains. Sea surface temperature around Sri Lanka was 1.0℃ above average from 17 – 23 Sep 2024.
Interpretation
Monitoring
Rainfall: During the last two weeks, there has been Very Heavy rainfall over the following area: Hanwella (Colombo district).Average Rainfall in the Met stations for the previous week of (9 Oct- 15 Oct) = 15.9 mm/day Maximum Daily Rainfall: 90 mm & Minimum Daily Rainfall: 0.0 mm.
Wind: Westerly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week.
Temperatures: The temperature anomalies were near neutral for Sri lanka driven by the warm SSTs anomalies.
Prediction
Rainfall: During the next week (16 – 22 October), Moderate rainfall (≥135 mm) is predicted for the Northern province and Light showers (12.5 mm≥) is predicted for the North Western, Western, Southern, Sabaragamuwa, Central, Uva, Eastern and North Central provinces.
Temperatures: The temperature will remain normal for the SL during 17 Oct – 23 Oct.
Teleconnections: MJO shall be near neutral for the rainfall during 16-20 October and slightly suppress the rainfall during 21-25 October and moderately suppress the rainfall during 26-30 October for Sri Lanka.
Seasonal Precipitation: The precipitation forecast for the November-December-January, 2024 season shows a 50% or more tendency toward above-normal precipitation for the the country.
Terminology for Rainfall Ranges
| Rainfall | |
| Light Showers | Less than 12.5 mm |
| Light to Moderate | Between 12.5 mm and 25 mm |
| Moderate | Between 25 mm and 50 mm |
| Fairly Heavy | Between 50 mm and 100 mm |
| Heavy | Between 100 mm and 150 mm |
| Very Heavy | More than 150 mm |
