Highlights

Rainfall Prediction: Fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for Eastern, Uva, North Central, Northern and Southern provinces from 18thDec–22nd Dec. Highest rainfall for the period is predicted for Jaffna on the 18thDec.

Monitored Rainfalls: Very Heavy  rainfall was experienced in Western and Uva provinces with max of 179 mm in Badulla district on 12th Dec.

Monitored  Wind: From 8th Dec -15th Dec, up to 45 km/h North-easterlies were experienced across the island.

Monitored  Sea Surface: Sea surface temperatures were above 1°C around the entire island.

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall:During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the following provinces:Western and Uva.

Wind:Northeasterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week.

Temperatures: The temperature anomalies were neutral for some parts of Southern, Uva and Eastern provinces while 10C-30C above neutral for the rest of the island last week, driven by the warm SST’s.

Prediction

Rainfall: During the next week (18th December – 22nd December) fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for Eastern, Uva, North Central, Northern, Southern provinces.

Temperatures: The temperature remains normal during 18th December – 26th December for the entire island.

Teleconnections: La Nina-The SST forecast indicates that La Niña is favored to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter.

MJO shall be active during 18thDecember–30thDecembergiving severely suppressed rainfall from 18th December–25th December and significantly suppressed rainfall from 26th December–30th December for the entire island.

Seasonal Precipitation:

The precipitation forecast for the Jan-Feb-Mar season show enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation over Sri Lanka.

Understanding the Forecast