Blogs
Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka (Week of 14 November – 21 November 2025)
Highlights
Rainfall Prediction: From 11th -17th Nov, heavy rainfall (105-135 mm) is predicted for the Western plains, Western hills and Northern Plains; while fairly heavy rainfall (55-105 mm) is predicted for the Southern plains , Eastern plains and Eastern hills. From 18th -24th Nov , the rainfall shall intensify further with a similar spatial pattern.
Monitored Rainfall: During 4th – 10th November, the average rainfall across Sri Lanka totalled 55 mm. There was higher rainfall across the Western and Eastern slopes especially in Anuradhapura with a maximum of 100 mm on 6th November.
Monitored and Predicted Wind: From 3rd -9th Nov, winds at 1.5 km height were mostly from the north and northwest at speeds ranging 4-8 m/s. From 12th-18th Nov, wind speeds are predicted to be low, in the range of 1-6 m/s coming from the North East.
Monitored Sea and Land Temperature: Sri Lanka recorded seasonable temp across its regions The Eastern plains were the warmest, with maximum temp of 32.5°C , compared to 27.1°C in the Eastern hills. The sea surface temp was warmer than average around Northern ,North Western and South Eastern coasts, ranging between 1 °C and 1.5 °C above average.

Interpretation
Monitoring
Rainfall: Average Rainfall in the regions for the previous week of (5-11 November) = 7.8 mm/day. Maximum Daily Rainfall: 99.6 mm & Minimum Daily Rainfall: 0.0 mm.
Wind: North and North-Westerly winds prevailed over the sea area and around the island last week, with wind speeds ranging between 4-8 m/s from 3 – 9 Nov.
Temperatures:During the period 2 – 8 Nov, Sri Lanka experienced near-neutral conditions except in Southern, Western, Eastern and Northern provinces and some parts in Sabaragamuwa province.
Prediction
Rainfall: From 11 – 17 November, rainfall is expected to be 105–135 mm/week in WP, WH and NP regions; 55-105 mm/week in EH, SP and EP regions.
Temperatures: From 13-26 November, temperature will remain normal for Sri Lanka. (Source: SL Met Dept).
Teleconnections: The Madden-Julian-Oscillation (MJO) will moderately suppress from 11th – 20th Nov, and slightly suppress the rainfall from 21st – 25th Nov.
Seasonal Precipitation: The forecast for the November-December-January 2026 season shows high tendency towards the near-neutral tercile.
Terminology for Rainfall Ranges
| Terminology | Rainfall (mm/week) |
| Light Showers | Less than 12.5 mm |
| Light to Moderate | Between 12.5 mm and 25 mm |
| Moderate | Between 25 mm and 50 mm |
| Fairly Heavy | Between 50 mm and 100 mm |
| Heavy | Between 100 mm and 150 mm |
| Very Heavy | More than 150 mm |