Highlights

Rainfall Prediction: From 11th -17th Nov, heavy rainfall (105-135 mm) is predicted for the Western plains, Western hills and Northern Plains; while fairly heavy rainfall (55-105 mm) is predicted for the Southern plains , Eastern plains and Eastern hills. From 18th -24th Nov , the rainfall shall intensify further with a similar spatial pattern.

Monitored Rainfall: During 4th  – 10th November, the average rainfall across Sri Lanka totalled 55 mm. There was higher rainfall across the Western and Eastern slopes especially in Anuradhapura with a maximum of  100 mm on 6th November.

Monitored and Predicted Wind: From 3rd -9th Nov, winds at 1.5 km height were mostly from the north and northwest at speeds ranging 4-8 m/s. From 12th-18th Nov, wind speeds are predicted to be low, in the range of 1-6 m/s coming from the North East.

Monitored Sea and Land Temperature: Sri Lanka recorded seasonable temp across its regions The Eastern plains were the warmest, with maximum temp of 32.5°C , compared to 27.1°C in the Eastern hills. The sea surface temp was warmer than average around Northern ,North Western and South Eastern coasts, ranging between 1 °C and 1.5 °C above average.

 

Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka (Week of 14 November – 21 November 2025)

 

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: Average Rainfall in the regions for the previous week of (5-11 November) = 7.8 mm/day. Maximum Daily Rainfall: 99.6 mm & Minimum Daily Rainfall: 0.0 mm.

Wind: North and North-Westerly winds prevailed over the sea area and around the island last week, with wind speeds ranging between 4-8 m/s from 3 – 9 Nov.

Temperatures:During the period 2 – 8 Nov, Sri Lanka experienced near-neutral conditions except in Southern, Western, Eastern and Northern provinces and some parts in Sabaragamuwa province.

Prediction

Rainfall: From 11 – 17 November, rainfall is expected to be 105–135 mm/week in WP, WH and NP regions; 55-105 mm/week in EH, SP and EP regions.

Temperatures: From 13-26 November, temperature will remain normal for Sri Lanka. (Source: SL Met Dept).

Teleconnections: The Madden-Julian-Oscillation (MJO) will moderately suppress from 11th – 20th Nov, and slightly suppress the rainfall from 21st – 25th Nov.

Seasonal Precipitation: The forecast for the November-December-January 2026 season shows high tendency towards the near-neutral tercile.

Terminology for Rainfall Ranges

TerminologyRainfall (mm/week)
Light ShowersLess than 12.5 mm
Light to ModerateBetween 12.5 mm and 25 mm
ModerateBetween 25 mm and 50 mm
Fairly HeavyBetween 50 mm and 100 mm
HeavyBetween 100 mm and 150 mm
Very HeavyMore than 150 mm