Highlights

Rainfall Prediction: Heavy rainfall is predicted for Eastern, Northern, North Central and Southern provinces from 11th Dec – 14th Dec.

Monitored Rainfalls: Heavy rainfall was experienced in Sabaragamuwa, Southern and Uva provinces with max of 128.5 mm in Hambantota district on 2nd Dec.

Monitored  Wind: From 29th Nov – 6th Dec, up to 40 km/h Northeasterlies were experienced across the island.

Monitored  Sea Surface: Sea surface temperatures were above 0.50C in the Western seas and neutral around the rest of the island.

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall:During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the following provinces: Sabaragamuwa, Southern and Uva.

Wind:Northeasterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week.

Temperatures: The temperature anomalies were 10C-30C above neutral in the Central,Sabaragamuwa, North Central and Uva provinces last week, driven by the warm SST’s.

Prediction

Rainfall: During the next week (11th December – 14th December) heavy rainfall is predicted for Eastern, Northern, North Central and Southern provinces.

Temperatures: The temperature remains normal during 11th December – 18th December for the entire island.

Teleconnections:  La Nina -The SST forecast indicates that ENSO-neutral are present and a transition from ENSO-neutral to La Niña is favored in the next couple of months.

MJO shall be active during 11th December – 22nd December giving severely suppressed rainfall for the entire island.

Seasonal Precipitation:

The precipitation forecast for the Dec-Feb season show enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation over Sri Lanka.

Understanding the Forecast