Highlights

Rainfall Prediction: Heavy rainfall is predicted for Eastern and Uva provinces from 8th Jan – 11th Jan. Greater likelihood of wet tendency is predicted for Sri Lanka from Jan – Mar.

Monitored Rainfalls: Very heavy rainfall was experienced in the Eastern province with max of 158.7 mm in Batticaloa district on 3rd Jan.

Monitored  Wind: From 28th Dec 2021 – 4th Jan 2022, up to 50km/h North-easterlies were experienced across the island.

Monitored  Sea Surface: Sea surface temperatures were neutral around the entire island. However, slightly warm tendency was observed according to the 7- day SST anomaly.

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: During the last two weeks, there had been very heavy rainfall over the following provinces: Eastern

Wind: Northeasterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week.

Temperatures: The temperature anomalies were 1°C – 3°C above neutral for some parts of Central and Sabaragamuwa provinces last week, driven by the warm SST’s.

Prediction

Rainfall: During the next week (8th January – 11th January) heavy rainfall is predicted for Eastern and Uva province.

Temperatures: The temperature remains normal during 8th January – 15th January for the entire island.

Teleconnections: La Nina – The SST forecast indicates that La Niña is favored to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter.

MJO shall be active during 8th January – 19th January giving slightly suppressed rainfall from 8th January – 14th January and slightly enhanced rainfall from 15th January – 19th January for the entire island.

Seasonal Precipitation:

The precipitation forecast for the Jan-Mar season show enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation over Sri Lanka.

Understanding the Forecast