Blogs
Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka (Week of 05 – 12 December 2025)
Highlights
Rainfall Prediction: From 25th Nov – 01st Dec, heavy rainfall (>135 mm) is predicted for the Eastern Plains and Northern Plains; fairly heavy rainfall (50-100 mm) is expected in Western Hills, Western Plains, Eastern Hills, Southern Plains. From 08th – 14th Dec , the rainfall shall increase further.
Monitored Rainfall: During 26th November – 2nd December, Cyclone Ditwah resulted significantly above average rainfall in SL, with daily average rainfall reaching 104 mm on 26th, 157 on 27th and 59 on 28th.Polonnaruwa, Anuradhapura, Mannar, Vavuniya and Mullaitivu received above 200 mm rainfall from 26th – 29th Nov.
Monitored and Predicted Wind: From 17th -23rd Nov, winds at 1.5 km height were mostly from the northeast speeds ranging 4-8 m/s. From 03rd – 09th Dec, wind speeds are predicted to be in the range of 2-6 m/s coming from the northeast.
Monitored Sea and Land Temperature: Sri Lanka recorded seasonable temp across its regions. The Southern plains were the warmest, with maximum temp of 29.9°C. The sea surface temp was warmer than average around Sri Lanka, ranging between 0.3°C and 1°C above average.

Interpretation
Monitoring
Rainfall: From 24 – 30 November, most days experienced significantly above-average rainfall levels. The highest daily rainfall was recorded on 27 November as 130 mm/day.
Wind : North-Easterly winds prevailed over the sea area and around the island last week, with wind speeds ranging between 4-8 m/s from 23 – 29 Nov.
Prediction
Rainfall: From 01 – 07 December, rainfall is predicted to be above 135 mm/week in Eastern Plains and Southern Plains; 65 – 105 mm/week in Western Hills, Western Plains and Eastern Hills; 55 – 65 mm/week in Southern Plains.
Temperatures: From 03 – 17 December, temperature will remain normal for Sri Lanka. (Source: SL Met Dept).
Teleconnections: The Madden-Julian-Oscillation (MJO) will significantly suppress the rainfall from 02nd – 06th Dec, slightly suppress the rainfall from 07th – 11th Dec, moderately enhance the rainfall from 12th – 16th Dec.
Seasonal Rainfall Prediction: The forecast for the December-January-February 2026 season shows high tendency towards the near-neutral tercile.
Terminology for Rainfall Ranges
| Terminology | Rainfall (mm/week) |
| Light Showers | Less than 12.5 mm |
| Light to Moderate | Between 12.5 mm and 25 mm |
| Moderate | Between 25 mm and 50 mm |
| Fairly Heavy | Between 50 mm and 100 mm |
| Heavy | Between 100 mm and 150 mm |
| Very Heavy | More than 150 mm |