Highlights

Rainfall Prediction: Heavy rainfall is predicted for Northern provinces from 4th Dec – 7th Dec. 

Monitored Rainfalls: Very heavy rainfall was experienced in Sabaragamuwa province with max of 219.0 mm in Ratnapura district on 24th Nov.

Monitored  Wind: From 23rd Nov – 30th Nov, up to 35 km/h Southeasterlies and Northeasterlies were experienced across the island.

Monitored  Sea Surface: Sea surface temperatures were above 10C around the entire island.

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall:During the last two weeks, there had been very heavy rainfall over the Sabaragamuwa Province.

Wind:Southeasterly and Northeasterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week.

Temperatures: The temperature anomalies were near-neutral for the entire island last week, driven by the warm SST’s.

Prediction

Rainfall: During the next week (4 th December – 7 th December) heavy rainfall is predicted for the Northern province.

Temperatures: The temperature remains normal during 4 th December – 11 th December for the entire island.

Teleconnections:  La Nina -The SST forecast indicates that ENSO-neutral are present and a transition from ENSO- neutral to La Niña is favored in the next couple of months.

MJO shall be active during 4 th December – 15 th December giving slightly suppressed rainfall for the entire island. Rainfall will be slightly more suppressed in southern Sri Lanka than in the rest of the country from 4 th December – 5 th December.

Seasonal Precipitation:

The precipitation forecast for the Dec-Feb season show enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation over Sri Lanka.

Understanding the Forecast