Highlights

Predictions

This climate bulletin for Sri Lanka predicts overall rainfall will decrease by about 36%. This applies to 30 June to 6 July, compared to the previous week.As a result, the Western Plains will receive rainfall of 35 to 45 mm during this period. Meanwhile, from 1 to 7 July, winds will reach 10 to 20 m/s. They will blow from the Northwest.

El Niño Event

As of mid-June 2026, the Pacific Ocean has officially transitioned into El Niño conditions. Sea surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific (Niño 3.4 region) are running around 1.1°C above average.Consequently, some parts of the Indian Peninsula are experiencing drier-than-normal conditions. This is a typical seasonal El Niño impact. However, western and northeastern India will likely receive heavy rainfall over the next two weeks.In contrast, the Eastern Tropical Indian Ocean’s sea surface temperatures tell a different story. They are currently running warmer than normal, unlike a typical El Niño pattern. Meanwhile, western regions of Sri Lanka will receive over 45 mm of rainfall, which is typical for June.

Monitoring

This climate bulletin for Sri Lanka also tracks recent conditions. The first two weeks of June brought relatively dry conditions. Afterward, Sri Lanka saw above-average rainfall from 17 to 29 June.During 24-30 June, the average daily rainfall reached 2 mm. Notably, Galle recorded the highest daily rainfall — 74 mm on 28 June. Ratnapura followed close behind at 50 mm on 26 June.Additionally, from 22 to 28 June 2026, winds at 1.5 km elevation blew mostly from the Northwest. Speeds ranged from 10 to 15 m/s. Overall, Sri Lanka experienced typical June temperatures. Specifically, the Eastern Plains reached an average maximum temperature of 35.3°C, while the Eastern Hills recorded an average minimum temperature of 18.7°C.

Rainfall Prediction

From 30 June to 6 July, rainfall will decrease compared to the previous week. This applies throughout Sri Lanka.For instance, the Western Plains will receive 35 to 45 mm. Similarly, the Southern Plains and the Western and Eastern Hills will receive 5 to 35 mm. The Northern and Eastern Plains, however, will receive just 0 to 5 mm.Then, from 7 to 13 July, rainfall will increase. The Western and Southern Plains will receive 35 to 55 mm, while the rest of Sri Lanka will receive 5 to 35 mm.

Source: NOAA CPC

Monitored Rainfall

During 24-30 June, the average daily rainfall reached 2 mm. Before that, the first two weeks of June brought relatively dry conditions (1 to 6 mm).However, Sri Lanka then saw above-average rainfall (6 to 16 mm) from 17 to 29 June. During this period, Galle recorded the highest daily rainfall — 74 mm on 28 June. Ratnapura followed at 50 mm on 26 June.

Monitored Land & Sea Temperature

During 24-30 June, Sri Lanka’s average maximum temperature reached 32.2°C. This was higher than the previous week’s 31.7°C.Meanwhile, the Western Hills recorded the lowest temperatures at 26.8°C. Sea surface temperatures around Sri Lanka also ran 1.0°C warmer than average around the northern, southern, and western coasts. In contrast, the northeast coast stayed cooler than average.

Monitored & Predicted Wind

From 22 to 28 June 2026, winds at 1.5 km elevation blew mostly from the Northwest. Speeds ranged from 10 to 15 m/s.Looking ahead, from 1 to 7 July 2026, winds will speed up. They are expected to reach 10 to 20 m/s from the Northwest.

Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Centre.