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Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka (Week of 16 January – 23 January 2026)
Highlights
Rainfall Prediction: From 13th -19th Jan 2026, moderate rainfall (25-35 mm) is predicted for the Southern Plains and Eastern Plains; light to moderate (0-25 mm) is predicted for the Western Plains and Hills, Eastern Hills and Northern plains. From 13th – 19th Jan , the rainfall shall decrease across SL compared to the first week of Jan
Monitored Rainfall: During 7th – 13th January, the average rainfall across Sri Lanka totaled 39 mm. There was heavy rainfall across the Eastern, Northern and Western Plains, especially in Mullaitivu with a maximum of 64 mm on 9th January. This is mainly due to the storm formed in the Bay of Bengal and moved towards the eastern and northern coasts of SL.
Monitored and Predicted Wind: From 5th – 11th Jan 2026, winds at 1.5 km height were mostly from the east at speeds ranging 10-15 m/s. From 14th-20th Jan 2026, wind speeds are predicted to be in the range of 1-10 m/s coming from the North East. Wind speeds are expected to be lower compared to the previous week.
Monitored Sea and Land Temperature: Seasonable temperature was recorded, which is the lowest during Dec – Jan. The Southern plains had the maximum temp of 30.4°C, while the Eastern Hills had the minimum temperature of 22.4 °C. The sea surface temperature around Northern, Eastern and Southern coasts, was below average, ranging between (-1°C) – (-0.25°C).

Interpretation
Monitoring: Average Rainfall in the regions for the previous week of (7 – 13 January 2026) = 5.5 mm/day. Maximum Daily Rainfall: 63.8 mm & Minimum Daily Rainfall: 0.0 mm.
Rainfall:From 5 – 12 January, most days experienced above-average rainfall levels. The highest daily rainfall was recorded on 5 January as 14 mm/day.
Wind :Easterly winds prevailed over the sea area and around the island last week, with wind speeds ranging between 10-15 m/s from 5 – 11 Jan 2026.
Prediction
Rainfall: Rainfall: From 13 – 19 January 2026, rainfall is expected to be 25–35 mm/week in EP, EP regions; 0-25 mm/week in WH, EH ,NP, WP regions.
Temperatures: From 13 – 28 January, temperature will remain normal for Sri Lanka. (Source: SL Met Dept).
Teleconnections: The Madden-Julian-Oscillation (MJO) will moderately suppress the rainfall from 13th – 23rd Jan 2026 and will slightly suppress the rainfall from 24th- 28th Jan 2026.
Seasonal Rainfall Prediction: The forecast for the January-February-March 2026 season shows high tendency towards the near-neutral tercile for the southern half while it shows higher tendency towards 45% above-normal tercile for the northern half of Sri Lanka.
Terminology for Rainfall Ranges
| Terminology | Rainfall (mm/week) |
| Light Showers | Less than 12.5 mm |
| Light to Moderate | Between 12.5 mm and 25 mm |
| Moderate | Between 25 mm and 50 mm |
| Fairly Heavy | Between 50 mm and 100 mm |
| Heavy | Between 100 mm and 150 mm |
| Very Heavy | More than 150 mm |