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Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka (Week of 07 November – 14 November 2025)
Highlights
Rainfall Prediction: From 5th -11th Nov, heavy rainfall (105-135 mm) is predicted for the Western plains, Western hills; while fairly heavy rainfall (55-105 mm) is predicted for the Southern plains and Eastern hills; while moderate rainfall (25-55 mm is predicted for the Eastern plains and Northern plains. From 12th -18th Nov , the rainfall shall intensify further with a similar spatial pattern.
Monitored Rainfall:During 29th October – 4th November, the average rainfall across Sri Lanka totalled 6 mm which was near–normal. There was higher rainfall across the Eastern slopes especially in Polonnaruwa with a maximum of 15 mm on 1st November.
Monitored and Predicted Wind: From 28th Oct-3rd Nov, winds at 1.5 km height were mostly from the northwest at speeds ranging 6-10 m/s .From 6th-12th Nov, wind speeds are predicted to be low, in the range of 1-5 m/s coming from the North.
Monitored Sea and Land Temperature: Sri Lanka recorded seasonable temperatures across its regions. The Eastern plains were the warmest, with maximum temperature of 34°C , compared to 29°C in the Eastern hills. The sea surface temperature was warmer than average around Northern and Western coasts, ranging between 1 °C and 1.5 °C above average.

Interpretation
Monitoring
Rainfall: Average Rainfall in the regions for the previous week of (29 October-4 November) = 0.4 mm/day. Maximum Daily Rainfall: 15.3 mm & Minimum Daily Rainfall: 0.0 mm.
Wind: North-Westerly winds prevailed over the sea area and around the island last week, with wind speeds ranging between 6-10 m/s from 28 Oct – 3 Nov.
Temperatures: During the period 26 October – 1 Nov, Sri Lanka experienced near-neutral conditions except in Western, Southern, Sabaragamuwa provinces and some parts in Central, Uva, Eastern and North Central provinces.
Prediction
Rainfall:From 5 – 11 November, rainfall is expected to be 105–135 mm/week in WP, WH regions; 55-105 mm/week in EH, SP regions; 25 -55mm/week in EP, NP regions.
Temperatures: From 7-20 November, temperature will remain normal for Sri Lanka. (Source: SL Met Dept).
Teleconnections:The Madden-Julian-Oscillation (MJO) will moderately suppress from 5th – 10th Nov, and significantly suppress the rainfall from 11th – 20th Nov.
Seasonal Precipitation: The forecast for the November-December-January 2026 season shows high tendency towards the near-neutral tercile.
Terminology for Rainfall Ranges
| Terminology | Rainfall (mm/week) |
| Light Showers | Less than 12.5 mm |
| Light to Moderate | Between 12.5 mm and 25 mm |
| Moderate | Between 25 mm and 50 mm |
| Fairly Heavy | Between 50 mm and 100 mm |
| Heavy | Between 100 mm and 150 mm |
| Very Heavy | More than 150 mm |