Highlights

Rainfall Prediction: From 5th -11th Nov, heavy rainfall (105-135 mm) is predicted for the Western plains, Western hills; while fairly heavy rainfall (55-105 mm) is predicted for the Southern plains and Eastern hills; while moderate rainfall (25-55 mm is predicted for the Eastern plains and Northern plains. From 12th -18th Nov , the rainfall shall intensify further with a similar spatial pattern.

Monitored Rainfall:During 29th October – 4th November, the average rainfall across Sri Lanka totalled 6 mm which was near–normal. There was higher rainfall across the Eastern slopes especially in Polonnaruwa with a maximum of 15 mm on 1st November.

Monitored and Predicted Wind: From 28th Oct-3rd Nov, winds at 1.5 km height were mostly from the northwest at speeds ranging 6-10 m/s .From 6th-12th Nov, wind speeds are predicted to be low, in the range of 1-5 m/s coming from the North.

Monitored Sea and Land Temperature: Sri Lanka recorded seasonable temperatures across its regions. The Eastern plains were the warmest, with maximum temperature of 34°C , compared to 29°C in the Eastern hills. The sea surface temperature was warmer than average around Northern and Western coasts, ranging between 1 °C and 1.5 °C above average.

 

Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka (Week of 07 November – 14 November 2025)

 

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: Average Rainfall in the regions for the previous week of (29 October-4 November) = 0.4 mm/day. Maximum Daily Rainfall: 15.3 mm & Minimum Daily Rainfall: 0.0 mm.

Wind: North-Westerly winds prevailed over the sea area and around the island last week, with wind speeds ranging between 6-10 m/s from 28 Oct – 3 Nov.

Temperatures: During the period 26 October – 1 Nov, Sri Lanka experienced near-neutral conditions except in Western, Southern, Sabaragamuwa provinces and some parts in Central, Uva, Eastern and North Central provinces.

Prediction

Rainfall:From 5 – 11 November, rainfall is expected to be 105–135 mm/week in WP, WH regions; 55-105 mm/week in EH, SP regions; 25 -55mm/week in EP, NP regions.

Temperatures: From 7-20 November, temperature will remain normal for Sri Lanka. (Source: SL Met Dept).

Teleconnections:The Madden-Julian-Oscillation (MJO) will moderately suppress from 5th – 10th Nov, and significantly suppress the rainfall from 11th – 20th Nov.

Seasonal Precipitation: The forecast for the November-December-January 2026 season shows high tendency towards the near-neutral tercile.

Terminology for Rainfall Ranges

TerminologyRainfall (mm/week)
Light ShowersLess than 12.5 mm
Light to ModerateBetween 12.5 mm and 25 mm
ModerateBetween 25 mm and 50 mm
Fairly HeavyBetween 50 mm and 100 mm
HeavyBetween 100 mm and 150 mm
Very HeavyMore than 150 mm