Highlights

Rainfall Prediction: From 21st-27th Oct, rainfall shall increase: high rainfall is predicted for the Western plains and hills (105–145 mm), Southern plains, Eastern plains and hills are predicted to receive 75-105 mm while the Northern plains are predicted to receive 65-75 mm. From 28th Oct -03rd Nov, the rainfall shall intensify further with a similar spatial pattern.

Monitored Rainfall: During 14th-20th October, the average rainfall across Sri Lanka totalled 138 mm which was above–normal. There was much higher rainfall across the Western slopes especially in Galle with a maximum of 136 mm on 20th October.

Monitored and Predicted Wind: From 13th -19th October, winds at 1.5 km height were mostly from the East and South East at speeds ranging 2-4 m/s . From 22th-28th October, wind speeds are predicted to be high, in the range of 6-20 m/s still coming from the West and South West.

Monitored Sea and Land Temperature: Sri Lanka recorded seasonable temperatures across its regions. The Eastern plains were the warmest, with maximum temperature of 32°C , compared to 30.2 °C in the Western plains. The sea surface temperature (SST) was warmer than average around Northern, North Western and Eastern coasts by 1 – 1.5 °C.

 

Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka (Week of 24 October – 31 October 2025)

 

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: Average Rainfall in the regions for the previous week of (15 October-21 October) = 19.7 mm/day. Maximum Daily Rainfall: 136 mm & Minimum Daily Rainfall: 0.0 mm.

Wind: Easterly and South Easterly winds prevailed over the sea area and around the island last week, with wind speeds ranging between 2-4 m/s from 13 – 19 Oct.

Temperatures: During the period 12 – 18 October, Sri Lanka experienced near-neutral conditions except in part of the Sabaragamuwa and Central provinces.

Prediction

Rainfall:From 21– 27 October, rainfall is expected to be 105–145 mm/week in WP and WH regions; 75-105 mm/week in EP, SP and EH regions; 65-75mm/week in NP region.

Temperatures: From 23 October- 05 November, Sri Lanka will experience moderate temperatures, ranging from 17°C to 34°C across the country (Source: SL Met Dept).

Teleconnections:The Madden-Julian-Oscillation (MJO) will moderately enhanced for rainfall from 20th – 24th Oct , slightly suppressed from 25th – 29th Oct, and significantly suppressed from 30th Oct- 3rd Nov.

Seasonal Precipitation: The forecast for the October-November-December 2025 season shows high tendency towards the near-neutral tercile.

Terminology for Rainfall Ranges

TerminologyRainfall (mm/week)
Light ShowersLess than 12.5 mm
Light to ModerateBetween 12.5 mm and 25 mm
ModerateBetween 25 mm and 50 mm
Fairly HeavyBetween 50 mm and 100 mm
HeavyBetween 100 mm and 150 mm
Very HeavyMore than 150 mm