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Climate Bulletin for Sri Lanka (Week of 24 October – 31 October 2025)
Highlights
Rainfall Prediction: From 21st-27th Oct, rainfall shall increase: high rainfall is predicted for the Western plains and hills (105–145 mm), Southern plains, Eastern plains and hills are predicted to receive 75-105 mm while the Northern plains are predicted to receive 65-75 mm. From 28th Oct -03rd Nov, the rainfall shall intensify further with a similar spatial pattern.
Monitored Rainfall: During 14th-20th October, the average rainfall across Sri Lanka totalled 138 mm which was above–normal. There was much higher rainfall across the Western slopes especially in Galle with a maximum of 136 mm on 20th October.
Monitored and Predicted Wind: From 13th -19th October, winds at 1.5 km height were mostly from the East and South East at speeds ranging 2-4 m/s . From 22th-28th October, wind speeds are predicted to be high, in the range of 6-20 m/s still coming from the West and South West.
Monitored Sea and Land Temperature: Sri Lanka recorded seasonable temperatures across its regions. The Eastern plains were the warmest, with maximum temperature of 32°C , compared to 30.2 °C in the Western plains. The sea surface temperature (SST) was warmer than average around Northern, North Western and Eastern coasts by 1 – 1.5 °C.

Interpretation
Monitoring
Rainfall: Average Rainfall in the regions for the previous week of (15 October-21 October) = 19.7 mm/day. Maximum Daily Rainfall: 136 mm & Minimum Daily Rainfall: 0.0 mm.
Wind: Easterly and South Easterly winds prevailed over the sea area and around the island last week, with wind speeds ranging between 2-4 m/s from 13 – 19 Oct.
Temperatures: During the period 12 – 18 October, Sri Lanka experienced near-neutral conditions except in part of the Sabaragamuwa and Central provinces.
Prediction
Rainfall:From 21– 27 October, rainfall is expected to be 105–145 mm/week in WP and WH regions; 75-105 mm/week in EP, SP and EH regions; 65-75mm/week in NP region.
Temperatures: From 23 October- 05 November, Sri Lanka will experience moderate temperatures, ranging from 17°C to 34°C across the country (Source: SL Met Dept).
Teleconnections:The Madden-Julian-Oscillation (MJO) will moderately enhanced for rainfall from 20th – 24th Oct , slightly suppressed from 25th – 29th Oct, and significantly suppressed from 30th Oct- 3rd Nov.
Seasonal Precipitation: The forecast for the October-November-December 2025 season shows high tendency towards the near-neutral tercile.
Terminology for Rainfall Ranges
| Terminology | Rainfall (mm/week) |
| Light Showers | Less than 12.5 mm |
| Light to Moderate | Between 12.5 mm and 25 mm |
| Moderate | Between 25 mm and 50 mm |
| Fairly Heavy | Between 50 mm and 100 mm |
| Heavy | Between 100 mm and 150 mm |
| Very Heavy | More than 150 mm |