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Rainfall Forecast
• Heavy rainfall is predicted for Sabaragamuwa, Southern and Western provinces during 17th - 21st Sept. Greater likelihood of dry tendency than normal is predicted in the southern SL from October to December.
Monitored Rainfalls
• Fairly heavy rains were experienced in the Western, Sabaragamuwa, Southern & North Western provinces with max of 91.7 mm in Ratnapura district on 15th September.
Monitored Wind
• From 7th - 13th September: up to 15 km/h from Southwesterly were experienced over the island.
Monitored Sea Surface
• Sea surface temperature was observed above 0.5℃ to the South and West of Sri Lanka and neutral to the rest.
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Contents and Links to Sections
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Maximum rainfall of the past week
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Dekadal (10 Day) Satellite-Derived Rainfall Estimates.
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The figure in the left shows the average observed rainfall in the previous month. The rainfall anomaly in the previous month is shown in the figure to the right. The brown color in the anomaly figure shows places which received less rainfall than the historical average while the green color shows places with above-average rainfall. Darker shades show higher magnitudes in rainfall.
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Weekly Average SST Anomalies
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14-Day Prediction: NCEP model
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From 15th September - 21st September :
Total rainfall by Provinces:
- 115mm: Sabaragamuwa
- 105mm: Southern, Western
- 95mm: Central
- 85mm: Uva
- 75mm: North Western
- 65mm: Eastern
- 45mm: North Central
- 35mm: Northern
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From 22nd September - 28th September:
Total rainfall by Provinces:
- 105mm: Sabaragamuwa
- 95mm: Southern, Western
- 85mm: Central
- 65mm: North Western, Uva
- 45mm: Eastern, North Central
- 35mm: Northern
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Pacific sea state
September 08, 2021
Equatorial SSTs were below average in parts of the eastern Pacific Ocean and near average across the rest of the Pacific Ocean in early-September and most key atmospheric variables were ENSO – Neutral condition. A large majority of the model forecasts predict ENSO-neutral likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer.
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Indian Ocean State
Sea surface temperature was observed above 0.5℃ to the South and West of Sri Lanka and neutral to the rest.
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MJO State
For the next 15 days:
MJO shall be active, thus giving slightly enhanced rainfall during 17 th – 29 th September.
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Monitoring
Rainfall: During the last two weeks, there had been fairly heavy rainfall over the following Provinces: Sabaragamuwa, Western, North-Western and Southern.
Wind: South westerly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island during last week.
Temperatures: The temperature anomalies were near-neutral for the whole country last week – driven by the warm SST’s.
Predictions
Rainfall: During the next week (17th – 21st September) heavy rainfall is predicted for Sabaragamuwa, Southern and Western provinces.
Temperatures: The temperature remains slightly normal for September. During 17th – 25th September, the temperature remains high especially in the Eastern, Northern, North Central and Uva provinces.
Teleconnections: La Nina -The SST forecast indicates that the La Niña event has transitioned to ENSO-neutral and will likely remain so through the boreal summer.
MJO shall be active, thus giving slightly enhanced rainfall during 17th – 29th September.
Seasonal Precipitation: October to December is the main rainfall season in Sri Lanka. The consensus has switched from neutral to having a dry tendency. If so, it can hurt agriculture adding to fertilizer bans and hydropower generation, given $ scarcity.
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A summary for Sri Lanka of last weeks weather and climate, a review of the rainfall, temperature over land and sea, and a suite of predictions from 3 days, 7-14 days, monthly and seasonal for rainfall and temperature. Our summary is above and the links direct you to details.
Note, while we provide a synthesis from reputed outlets and conduct validation, this is a research product developed and operationalized over the last decade for water management by the MASL years and it is experimental. Please add this email address and fectsl@gmail.com to your contact list. Background on this report is available (Click Here). If you wish to subscribe Click Here.
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